25 days after the meeting of the two presidents, their foreign ministers along with foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Turkey (the countries supporting terrorist groups against the Syrian government) gathered to form quartet talks in Vienna; the meeting that ended by the failure of the Saudi-Turkey axis and invitation of Islamic Republic of Iran to talks. In this article the author first tries to point out the Russian provocations in interval between shaking hands and the Vienna meeting, then review the position of effective countries in the negotiations for the establishment of security in Syria and finally refer to upcoming meeting and the possible results.September 28: visiting the United Nations, September 30: flying in the Syrian sky
Although the difference in interest over the years resulted in darkening the relations between Washington and Moscow leading to the presidents of the two important actors in the international system not to meet each other for two years, but the Russians started a new play that seemingly is in aligned with their strategy and national interests in the Middle East. President of Russia for the first time traveled to New York to attend the UN General Assembly in order to shake hands once again with his American counterpart after two years and speak of fighting in Syria. Having differences more than four and a half years on the issue of Syria, now America and Russia sit at the table talk to discuss military operations against ISIS. Although it is unclear what concessions have been negotiated which under, only two days after, Russia began airstrikes against ISIS, the operation which is claimed that not only targets ISIS positions but also all Assad opposition forces. October 20: Bashar al-Assad in the Russian sky
In recent months, Russians have been trying to show their counterparts that they are very determined on their positions toward Syria and not only target ISIS and al-Nusra with their aircrafts in the Syrian sky but also are able to move Bashar al-Assad in the unsafe Syrian sky to meet Putin, as far as, it performed the first official visit abroad of the President since civil war (2011).
On the other hand, it shows the Kremlin's support of Russian President is so serious that let him to meet his counterpart and directly dialogue just a few days before the Geneva meeting. October 23: effective Vienna meeting, inviting Iran
Only 24 days after the shaking hands, foreign ministers of Russia, America, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Vienna came together to talk about the Syrian crisis and find a solution to end it. The group was called too small for problem-solving talks by foreign minister of Russian who insisted on presence of Iran and Egypt in ahead meetings. Unlike him, John Kerry considered it as an effective and at the end of the meeting said to reporters, the new plans were discussed at the meeting. But the interesting point is that in the current situation Turkey and Saudi Arabia do not have enough power to offer and seems unlikely to be able to dictate their opinions. Which countries have the ability to create stability and security in Syria?
After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Arab states of the Persian Gulf have always sought to compete with Tehran which during the past decade this competition intensified and it seems that in recent years, sometimes beyond the competition has turned to enmity.
However, after wrapping up the negotiations with the P5 + 1 and Iran's new diplomatic achievement, analysts of international relations and especially the Middle East knew well the next case should be solved will be the crisis in Syria.
Prior to this Tehran and the West due to the nuclear confrontation had the Cold relationships so the existence of terrorist groups in the backyard of Iran with the support of the West was not far-fetched. But by the passage of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in United Nations Security Council the new process, which is in opposition to extremism and violence, was developed in the region.
That is why the competing countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey) strongly feel threatened and knew well by solving the Syrian crisis (in line with the suggestions of Iran) after the approval of the JCPOA, Tehran will be more powerful in the region than before.
On the other hand, Moscow has a few basic considerations in this case. Although, Russia was always willing to dialogue-driven In Iran nuclear talks, the opportunity was practically taken from Russia by starting direct talks between Tehran and Washington. Lavrov's reluctance to attend the final sessions and not to participate in taking pictures at the end of negotiations confirm it.
Nevertheless, Moscow and Tehran are serious allied in Syria. Although, Russians had taken softer stance at the first and their red line was not keeping Assad in power, they gradually figured out if they want to behave with tolerance, the Libya issue will happen again. So they now agree with the proposal of Iran, means these are people of Syria who make decisions.
At odds with the West, Russians also realized that if they move slowly, they may lose Syria as easily as Ukraine. All these factors cause Russia to maintain its military bases and prestige in the international system, try as well to have a leadership role in solving the Syrian crisis. Some analysts believe that the Russians have taken this privilege from their Western rival on the sidelines of the nuclear negotiations.
Now, after four and a half years, Amerika is to sit at the negotiating table to confront the threat of extremism named ISIS. However, it seems this confronting and peace-building is relative, since according to the 2030 document Washington wants to keep quiet area of Syria and Iraq, but kind of peace as the fire under the ashes, when needed, they could ignite it again to make more difficulties for target countries.
In the end, it seems, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, which have supported the opposition groups including terrorists over the past four and a half years, are considered as the Achilles' heel that its greatest harm comes to the helpless people of Syria. Author:
Ahmad Vakhshiteh, PhD student in political science at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia Translator:
End of note/